Rainfall Extremes In Northern And Southern Central Java Coasts: Comparative Study Of ENSO And IOD Influences
Abstract
The northern and southern coastal regions of Central Java frequently experience hydrometeorological disasters due to extreme rainfall. The relationship between extreme rainfall in these two areas is influenced by fluctuations in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to compare the characteristics of extreme rainfall in the northern and southern coastal regions of Central Java in relation to ENSO and IOD phases. The analysis applies extreme rainfall indices (RX1D, RX5D, CDD, CWD) and Spearman-rank correlation to understand the influence of these climate phenomena and indices. The results show that RX1D and RX5D values are higher during La Niña and negative IOD phases, especially in the rainy season, while El Niño and positive IOD phases reduce their intensity. CWD is longer during La Niña, but positive IOD decreases the number of rainy days, particularly during the dry season. In contrast, CDD increases significantly during El Niño and positive IOD, which intensify dry conditions, especially along the southern coast. Spearman-rank correlations indicate a negative relationship between ENSO/IOD and RX1D, RX5D, and CWD, and a positive relationship with CDD, with stronger impacts during the dry season and second transitional period (SON), as well as varying characteristics between the two coasts. These findings underscore the necessity for adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to extreme rainfall characteristics, particularly when ENSO and IOD phases coincide, with stronger impacts observed along the southern coast.
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Fadlan, A., Sugianto, D. N., Kunarso, K., & Zainuri, M. (2017). Pengaruh fenomena monsun, El Niño southern oscillation (Enso) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap anomali tinggi muka laut di utara dan selatan Pulau Jawa.
Giarno, G., & Nanaruslana, Z. (2022). The precursors of high rainfall intensity during June in Southern Central Java: A case study of flash floods 18 June 2016 in Purworejo. MAUSAM, 73(4), 867-886.
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McBride, J. (1998). Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and tropical Australia: the southern hemisphere monsoon Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere (pp. 89-99): Springer.
McBride, J. L., & Nicholls, N. (1983). Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Monthly weather review, 111(10), 1998-2004.
Nabila, N. M., Sasmito, B., & Sukmono, A. (2019). Studi karakteristik gelombang perairan Laut Jawa menggunakan satelit altimetri tahun 2016-2018 (studi kasus: perairan laut Utara Jawa). Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 9(1), 67-76.
Nandargi, S., & Barman, K. (2018). Evaluation of climate change impact on rainfall variation in West Bengal. Acta Sci. Agric, 2(7).
NOAA. (2025). Cold & Warm Episodes by Season.
Raharja, A. B., Faqih, A., & Setiawan, A. M. (2022). An Application of Deep Learning Technique to Improve Subseasonal to Seasonal Rainfall Forecast over Java Island, Indonesia. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), 12(4), 587-598.
Rahayu, H. P., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Kombaitan, B., Khoirunnisa, D., & Pradana, V. (2020). A micro-scale study of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in coastal urban strategic planning for Jakarta. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 11(1), 119-133.
Rahayu, N. D., Sasmito, B., & Bashit, N. (2018). Analisis pengaruh fenomena Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap curah hujan di pulau Jawa. Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 7(1), 57-67.
Rahman, M. S., Toiba, H., & Huang, W.-C. (2021). The impact of climate change adaptation strategies on income and food security: Empirical evidence from small-scale fishers in Indonesia. Sustainability, 13(14), 7905.
Saji, N., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P., & Yamagata, T. (1999). A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751), 360-363.
Setyawan, W. B., & Pamungkas, A. (2017). Perbandingan karakteristik oseanografi pesisir utara dan selatan Pulau Jawa: pasang-surut, arus, dan gelombang. Paper presented at the Prosiding Seminar Nasional Kelautan dan Perikanan III.
Supari, Tangang, F., Salimun, E., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A., & Juneng, L. (2018). ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2559-2580.
Suwarman, R., Riawan, E., Simanjuntak, Y. S. M., & Irawan, D. E. (2022). Kajian perubahan iklim di pesisir Jakarta berdasarkan data curah hujan dan temperatur. Buletin Oseanografi Marina, 11(1), 99-110.
Trenberth, K. E. (1997). The definition of el Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(12), 2771-2778.
Veanti, D. P. O., & Kloster, S. (2018). The change in forest fire danger and burnt area is related to the change in meteorological forcing variability. Paper presented at the AIP Conference Proceedings.
Xiao, C., Ye, J., Esteves, R. M., & Rong, C. (2016). Using Spearman's correlation coefficients for exploratory data analysis on a big dataset. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 28(14), 3866-3878.
Yulihastin, E., Muhammad, F., & Sofiati, I. (2021). Oceanic effect on precipitation development in the maritime continent during anomalously wet dry seasons in Java. The Indonesian Journal of Geography, 53(3), 328-339.
Yunus, R. (2015). Efek Fenomena Iklim Global Dan Topografi Terhadap Pola Distribusi Curah Hujan Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Dan Di Yogyakarta. Universitas Gadjah Mada.
Zar, J. H. (2005). Spearman's rank correlation. Encyclopedia of biostatistics, 7.
Afghani, F. A., Mashuri, I., Khirtin, R., & Cahyo, M. A. (2023). Topography Effects on Rainfall Characteristics in Bandung City and Cilacap Regency for the 2016-2020 Period. Sainmatika: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, 20(2), 157-167.
Agustina, L., Syawreta, A., & Irawan, A. M. (2020). Analisis Ambang Batas Hujan untuk Pengembangan Sistem Peringatan Dini Tanah Longsor: Studi Kasus Kecamatan Pejawaran, Kabupaten Banjarnegara, Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Dialog Penanggulangan Bencana, 11(1), 75-81.
Alavinia, S. H., & Zarei, M. (2021). Analysis of spatial changes of extreme precipitation and temperature in Iran over a 50-year period. International Journal of Climatology, 41(S1), E2269-E2289.
Aldrian, E., & Djamil, Y. S. (2008). Spatio-temporal climatic change of rainfall in East Java Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 28(4), 435-448.
Amri, S., & Giarno, G. (2024). Analisis Dinamika Atmosfer Pada Kejadian Banjir, Tanah Longsor, dan Angin Kencang Di Semarang dan Demak Tanggal 13 Maret 2024. Jurnal Ilmiah Biosaintropis (Bioscience-Tropic), 10(1), 77-89.
Anam, A. R., Asfahanif, F., Muthi'ah, V. D., Pangedoan, A. D., & Giarno, G. (2023). Comparison Analysis of Wind Patterns and Its Correlations to Temperature, Humidity, and Rainfall in Coastal and Non-Coastal Areas. EKSAKTA: Berkala Ilmiah Bidang MIPA, 24(01), 67-79.
Ashok, K., Guan, Z., & Yamagata, T. (2001). Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO. Geophysical research letters, 28(23), 4499-4502.
Ashok, K., & Saji, N. (2007). On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Natural Hazards, 42, 273-285.
Biswas, J. (2023). Unravelling the influence of teleconnection patterns on monsoon extreme precipitation indices over the Sikkim Himalayas and West Bengal. Journal of Hydrology, 618, 129148.
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Weller, E., Wu, L., Ashok, K., Yamagata, T. (2014). Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming. Nature, 510(7504), 254-258.
Chakraborty, A., & Singhai, P. (2021). Asymmetric response of the Indian summer monsoon to positive and negative phases of major tropical climate patterns. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 22561.
Darmawan, Y., Mashuri, I., Jumansa, M. A., Aslam, F. M., & Azzahra, A. (2023). Analisis Daerah Rawan Banjir dengan Metode Composite Mapping Analysis (CMA) di Kota Padang. Jurnal Ilmiah Geomatika, 29(2), 89-97.
Donat, M., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J., . Caesar, J. (2013). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(5), 2098-2118.
Fadlan, A., Sugianto, D. N., Kunarso, K., & Zainuri, M. (2017). Pengaruh fenomena monsun, El Niño southern oscillation (Enso) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap anomali tinggi muka laut di utara dan selatan Pulau Jawa.
Giarno, G., & Nanaruslana, Z. (2022). The precursors of high rainfall intensity during June in Southern Central Java: A case study of flash floods 18 June 2016 in Purworejo. MAUSAM, 73(4), 867-886.
Goddard, L., & Gershunov, A. (2020). Impact of El Niño on weather and climate extremes. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a changing climate, 361-375.
Hendon, H. H. (2003). Indonesian rainfall variability: Impacts of ENSO and local air–sea interaction. Journal of Climate, 16(11), 1775-1790.
Hidayat, N. M., Pandiangan, A. E., & Pratiwi, A. (2018). Identifikasi perubahan curah hujan dan suhu udara menggunakan Rclimdex Di wilayah Serang. Jurnal Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, 5(2), 37-44.
Hidayat, R., Ando, K., Masumoto, Y., & Luo, J. (2016). Interannual variability of rainfall over Indonesia: Impacts of ENSO and IOD and their predictability. Paper presented at the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
Ikhwali, M., Nur, S., Darmansyah, D., Hamdan, A., Ersa, N., Aida, N., . . . Satria, A. (2022). A review of climate change studies on paddy agriculture in Indonesia. Paper presented at the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
JMA. (2002). Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) / Historical IOD Events.
Kunarso, K., Hadi, S., Ningsih, N. S., & Baskoro, M. S. (2011). Variabilitas suhu dan klorofil-a di daerah upwelling pada variasi kejadian ENSO dan IOD di perairan selatan Jawa sampai Timor. ILMU KELAUTAN: Indonesian Journal of Marine Sciences, 16(3), 171-180.
Kurniadi, A., Weller, E., Min, S.-K., & Seong, M.-G. (2021). Independent ENSO and IOD impacts on rainfall extremes over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 41(6), 3640-3656.
Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., Barrett, K. (2023). Climate change 2023: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II, and III to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Mardiansyah, W., Setiabudidaya, D., Khakim, M. Y. N., Yustian, I., Dahlan, Z., & Iskandar, I. (2018). On the influence of Enso and IOD on rainfall variability over the Musi Basin, South Sumatra. Science and Technology Indonesia, 3(4), 157-163.
McBride, J. (1998). Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and tropical Australia: the southern hemisphere monsoon Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere (pp. 89-99): Springer.
McBride, J. L., & Nicholls, N. (1983). Seasonal relationships between Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation. Monthly weather review, 111(10), 1998-2004.
Nabila, N. M., Sasmito, B., & Sukmono, A. (2019). Studi karakteristik gelombang perairan Laut Jawa menggunakan satelit altimetri tahun 2016-2018 (studi kasus: perairan laut Utara Jawa). Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 9(1), 67-76.
Nandargi, S., & Barman, K. (2018). Evaluation of climate change impact on rainfall variation in West Bengal. Acta Sci. Agric, 2(7).
NOAA. (2025). Cold & Warm Episodes by Season.
Raharja, A. B., Faqih, A., & Setiawan, A. M. (2022). An Application of Deep Learning Technique to Improve Subseasonal to Seasonal Rainfall Forecast over Java Island, Indonesia. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), 12(4), 587-598.
Rahayu, H. P., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Kombaitan, B., Khoirunnisa, D., & Pradana, V. (2020). A micro-scale study of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in coastal urban strategic planning for Jakarta. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, 11(1), 119-133.
Rahayu, N. D., Sasmito, B., & Bashit, N. (2018). Analisis pengaruh fenomena Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) terhadap curah hujan di pulau Jawa. Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 7(1), 57-67.
Rahman, M. S., Toiba, H., & Huang, W.-C. (2021). The impact of climate change adaptation strategies on income and food security: Empirical evidence from small-scale fishers in Indonesia. Sustainability, 13(14), 7905.
Saji, N., Goswami, B. N., Vinayachandran, P., & Yamagata, T. (1999). A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Nature, 401(6751), 360-363.
Setyawan, W. B., & Pamungkas, A. (2017). Perbandingan karakteristik oseanografi pesisir utara dan selatan Pulau Jawa: pasang-surut, arus, dan gelombang. Paper presented at the Prosiding Seminar Nasional Kelautan dan Perikanan III.
Supari, Tangang, F., Salimun, E., Aldrian, E., Sopaheluwakan, A., & Juneng, L. (2018). ENSO modulation of seasonal rainfall and extremes in Indonesia. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2559-2580.
Suwarman, R., Riawan, E., Simanjuntak, Y. S. M., & Irawan, D. E. (2022). Kajian perubahan iklim di pesisir Jakarta berdasarkan data curah hujan dan temperatur. Buletin Oseanografi Marina, 11(1), 99-110.
Trenberth, K. E. (1997). The definition of el Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(12), 2771-2778.
Veanti, D. P. O., & Kloster, S. (2018). The change in forest fire danger and burnt area is related to the change in meteorological forcing variability. Paper presented at the AIP Conference Proceedings.
Xiao, C., Ye, J., Esteves, R. M., & Rong, C. (2016). Using Spearman's correlation coefficients for exploratory data analysis on a big dataset. Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, 28(14), 3866-3878.
Yulihastin, E., Muhammad, F., & Sofiati, I. (2021). Oceanic effect on precipitation development in the maritime continent during anomalously wet dry seasons in Java. The Indonesian Journal of Geography, 53(3), 328-339.
Yunus, R. (2015). Efek Fenomena Iklim Global Dan Topografi Terhadap Pola Distribusi Curah Hujan Di Provinsi Jawa Tengah Dan Di Yogyakarta. Universitas Gadjah Mada.
Zar, J. H. (2005). Spearman's rank correlation. Encyclopedia of biostatistics, 7.
Authors
Imawan Mashuri, Muzakkie, M. L., Duo Rahman Abdilah, Salsabila Nurul Izzah, & Giarno. (2025). Rainfall Extremes In Northern And Southern Central Java Coasts: Comparative Study Of ENSO And IOD Influences. Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi Dan Lingkungan (JGEL), 9(2), 370–386. https://doi.org/10.22236/jgel.v9i2.17934
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