Pengaruh ENSO Dan IOD Terhadap Curah Hujan Di Pesisir Dan Pegunungan: Studi Kasus Tanjung Priok, DKI Jakarta, Dan Puncak, Jawa Barat
Abstract
As a tropical country, Indonesia has different rainfall distribution and characteristics, influenced by climate variability, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena. This study aims to analyze the influence of ENSO and IOD on rainfall, temperature, and humidity in coastal and mountainous areas of Jabodetabek, using observational data from Tanjung Priok Maritime Meteorological Station and Citeko Meteorological Station for the period 1994-2023. The analysis was conducted seasonally using linear regression method to see the trend of climate parameters and Pearson correlation to measure the relationship between climate phenomena and meteorological parameters. The results showed that the ONI index as an indicator of ENSO was in the moderately strong to very strong category in coastal and mountainous areas. In the Positive IOD phase, the correlation with rainfall, temperature, and humidity shows a moderately strong to very strong influence, while in the Negative IOD phase, the impact is weaker. The study also revealed that the El Nino phenomenon tends to reduce rainfall and increase temperatures in coastal areas, while La Nina has more effect on increasing rainfall in mountainous areas. Overall, the ENSO and IOD phenomena have significant impacts on climate variability in these two regions, with differences in influence depending on the phase of each phenomenon.
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Ariska, M., Akhsan, H., Muslim, M., Sudirman, S., & Kistiono, K. (2022). Pengaruh El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Terhadap Curah Hujan dan Korelasinya dengan Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) Provinsi Sumatera Selatan dari Tahun 1981-2020. Jurnal Ilmu Fisika Dan Pembelajarannya, 6(2), 31–41.
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Badan Meteorologi, K. dan G. (2023, February). Mengenal bencana hidrometeorologi dalam era digital. KMS BMKG.
Bramawanto, R., & Rizal, F. A. (2017). Tinjauan Aspek Klimatologi (ENSO dan IOD) terhadap Produksi Garam Indonesia. Jurnal Kelautan Nasional, 12(2), 99. www.ggweather.com.
Cahyaningprastiwi, S.R., Karyati And Sarminah, S. (2021) ‘Suhu Dan Kelembaban Tanah Pada Posisi Topografi Dan Kedalaman Tanah Berbeda Di Taman Sejati Kota Samarinda’, Jurnal Agrifor, 20(2), Pp. 189–198. Available At: Https://Doi.Org/10.31293/Agrifor.V20i2.5231.
Purwanti, S. D., Weyai, S. L., Haryanto, Y. D., & Mulya, A. (2023). Analisis Kondisi Atmosfer Saat Kejadian Hujan Lebat di Sintang Menggunakan Satelit Cuaca dan Model ECMWF (Kasus: 30 September 2021). JPIG (Jurnal Pendidikan Dan Ilmu Geografi), 8(1), 63–74. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.21067/jpig.v8i1.8141
Estiningtyas, W., Susanti, E., Syahbuddin, H., & Sulaiman, A. A. (2018). Penentuan Wilayah Kunci Keragaman Iklim Indonesia Menggunakan Indikator Global untuk Mendukung Adaptasi Perubahan Iklim. Jurnal Tanah Dan Iklim, 42(1), 59–68.
Fatawa, M. I., Santosa, E., Hapsari, D. P., & Krisantini. (2023). Climate change and its adaptation strategies on tea plantation in West Java, Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Agronomy, 51(2), 257–268. https://doi.org/10.24831/ija.v51i2.47081
Fowler, H., Ali, H., Allan, R., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Senol Cabi, N., Chan, S., Dale, M., Dunn, R., Ekström, M., Evans, J., Fosser, G., Golding, B., Guerreiro, S., Hegerl, G., Kahraman, A., Kendon, E., & Whitford, A. (2021). Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, 379(2195), 20190542. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2019.0542
Ginting, F., Buulolo, E., & Siagian, E. R. (2019). Implementasi Algoritma Regresi Linear Sederhana dalam Memprediksi Besaran Pendapatan Daerah (Studi Kasus: Dinas Pendapatan Kab. Deli Serdang). KOMIK (Konferensi Nasional Teknologi Informasi Dan Komputer), 3(1). https://doi.org/10.30865/komik.v3i1.1602
Hermawan, Prianto, E., & Setyowati, E. (2018). Analisa Perbandingan Suhu Permukaan Dinding Rumah Vernakular Pantai dan Gunung. Arcade, 2(3), 149–154.
Hidayah, E., Indarto, Lee, W.-K., Halik, G., & Pradhan, B. (2022). Assessing Coastal Flood Susceptibility in East Java, Indonesia: Comparison of Statistical Bivariate and Machine Learning Techniques. Water, 14(23). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14233869
Hidayat, R., & Wardah, F. (2020). Identification of the changing air temperature and rainfall in Bogor. Jurnal Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam Dan Lingkungan (Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Management), 10(4), 616–626. https://doi.org/10.29244/jpsl.10.4.616-626
Hsiao, S.-C., Chiang, W.-S., Jang, J.-H., Wu, H.-L., Lu, W.-S., Chen, W.-B., & Wu, Y.-T. (2021). Flood risk is influenced by the compound effect of storm surge and rainfall under climate change for low-lying coastal areas. Science of The Total Environment, 764, 144439. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144439
Iskandar, I., Lestari, D. O., Saputra, A. D., Setiawan, R. Y., Wirasatriya, A., Susanto, R. D., Mardiansyah, W., Irfan, M., Rozirwan, Setiawan, J. D., & Kunarso. (2022). Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and Its Impact on Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(22). https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215155
Istiawan, N.D., Kastono, D. (2019) ‘Pengaruh Ketinggian Tempat Tumbuh Terhadap Hasil Dan Kualitas Minyak Cengkih (Syzygium Aromaticum (L.) Merr. & Perry.) Di Kecamatan Samigaluh, Kulon Progo’, Vegetalika, 8(1), Pp. 24–71. Available At: Https://Doi.Org/10.22146/Veg.35744
Karrevula, N.R. et al. (2024) ‘Indian ocean warming, extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and their impact on monthly Indian Monsoon rainfall from June to November in NMME models’, Atmospheric Research, 309, p. 107572. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107572.
Ke, Q., & Zhang, K. (2022). Interaction effects of rainfall and soil factors on runoff, erosion, and their predictions in different geographic regions. Journal of Hydrology, 605, 127291. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127291
Kurniadi, A., Weller, E., Min, S.-K., & Seong, M.-G. (2021). Independent ENSO and IOD impacts on rainfall extremes over Indonesia. International Journal of Climatology, 41(6), 3630–3656.
Liu, L. Et Al. (2022) ‘The Effect Of Sea Surface Temperature On Relative Humidity And Atmospheric Visibility Of A Winter Sea Fog Event Over The Yellow-Bohai Sea’, Atmosphere.
Manik, T. K., Rosadi, B., & Nurhayati, E. (2014). Mengukur Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap Distribusi Curah Hujan Lokal di Provinsi Lampung. Forum Geografi, 28(1), 73–86.
Marengo, J. A., Alves, L. M., Ambrizzi, T., Young, A., Barreto, N. J. C., & Ramos, A. M. (2020). Trends in extreme rainfall and hydrogeometeorological disasters in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo: a review. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1472(1), 5–20. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14307
Matdoan, M. Y., Astiswijaya, N., Nanlohy, Y. W. A., Puspitasari, D., Purwanti, E. W., Lembang, F. K., Sari, N. H. M., Maknunah, L. U., Sudirman, A., Susila, M. R., Arnita, Fatayah, Puka, A. O. B., & Prasetya, W. (2020). Pengantar Statistika Terapan (1st ed.). Penerbit Widina Bhakti Persada Bandung.
Miftahuddin (2016) ‘Analisis Unsur-Unsur Cuaca Dan Iklim Melalui Uji Mann-Kendall Multivariat’, Jurnal Matematika, Statistika Dan Komputasi, 13(1), Pp. 26–38. Available At: Https://Doi.Org/10.20956/Jmsk.V13i1.3476.
Nur’utami, M.N. and Hidayat, R. (2016) ‘Influences of IOD and ENSO to Indonesian Rainfall Variability: Role of Atmosphere-ocean Interaction in the Indo-pacific Sector’, Procedia Environmental Sciences, 33, pp. 196–203. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2016.03.070.
Napitupulu, F., Monicasari, S. And Sundar, S.D. (2023) ‘Pengaruh Propagasi Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Di Benua Maritim Indonesia (BMI) Terhadap Siklus Diurnal Dinamika Atmosfer Dan Curah Hujan Di Provinsi Papua Tahun 2018’, Buletin Meteorologi, Klimatologi, Dan Geofisika, 4(1), Pp. 10–21.
Pakpahan, S. L. H., Kurniati, R., Mulya, A., Meteorologi, P., & Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika, S. (2021). Analisis Kejadian Hujan Lebat PENYEBAB Banjir Dan Tanah Longsor (Studi Kasus: Ciganjur, Jakarta Selatan).
Purwaningsih, A., Harjana, T., Hermawan, E., & Andarini, D. (2020). Kondisi Curah Hujan Dan Curah Hujan Ekstrem Saat Mjo Kuat Dan Lemah: Distribusi Spasial Dan Musiman Di Indonesia. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 21, 85–94. https://doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v21i2.4153
Pandia, F.S., Bandi Sasmito And Abdi Sukmono (2019) ‘Analisis Pengaruh Angin Monsun Terhadap Perubahan Curah Hujan Dengan Penginderaan Jauh (Studi Kasus: Provinsi Jawa Tengah)’, Jurnal Geodesi Undip, 8(1), Pp. 278–287. Available At: Https://Doi.Org/10.14710/Jgundip.2019.22581.
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Qian, J.-H., Robertson, A. W., & Moron, V. (2010). Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67(11), 3509–3524. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3348.1
Qian, J.-H., Robertson, A. W., & Moron, V. (2013). Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO. Journal of Climate, 26(5), 1772–1790. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00178.1
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Authors
Aslama Afghani, F., Ravaella Lumbantobing, G., Christian Halawa, J., Yehezkiel Sidauruk, V., & Giarno. (2025). Pengaruh ENSO Dan IOD Terhadap Curah Hujan Di Pesisir Dan Pegunungan: Studi Kasus Tanjung Priok, DKI Jakarta, Dan Puncak, Jawa Barat. Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi Dan Lingkungan (JGEL), 9(2), 292–311. https://doi.org/10.22236/jgel.v9i2.17930
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