Dampak El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Terhadap Anomali Curah Hujan Di Kabupaten Temanggung 1995 – 2024
Abstract
Fenomena El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) memengaruhi kondisi curah hujan disuatu wilayah, salah satunya Kabupaten Temanggung. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis dampak ENSO terhadap anomali curah hujan di Kabupaten Temanggung pada periode 1995–2024. Data yang digunakan berupa curah hujan satelit CHIRPS yang dikoreksi dengan data observasi dan membandingkan rata-rata curah hujan saat fase El Niño serta La Niña dengan fase netral berdasarkan nilai Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Metode analisis data temporal dan spasial yang disajikan secara deskriptif kuantitatif digunakan untuk menjelaskan hasil yang telah diperoleh. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan secara temporal dampak El Niño memicu penurunan curah hujan rata-rata sebesar 20,6% dengan penurunan terbesar hingga 82,9% pada bulan Oktober, dengan dampak terbesar di sekitar lereng Gunung Sumbing dan Sindoro dan sisi utara pada perbukitan yang berbatasan dengan Kabupaten Kendal. Dampak La Niña meningkatkan curah hujan tahunan sekitar 14%, dengan peningkatan tertinggi di lereng Gunung Sumbing dan Sindoro dan semakin melemah menuju wilayah dengan elevasi yang lebih rendah. Secara temporal, dampak ENSO terhadap curah hujan di Temanggung lebih berpengaruh pada bulan Agustus-Oktober yang dapat memengaruhi perubahan antara musim kemarau ke penghujan di wilayah ini. Secara spasial, sebaran anomali curah hujan di Kabupaten Temanggung memiliki hubungan dengan kondisi topografinya dengan dampak lebih tinggi pada daerah pegunungan dan melemah menuju elevasi yang lebih rendah. Perlunya strategi adaptasi dan mitigasi lokal yang mempertimbangkan variasi spasial anomali curah hujan akibat ENSO guna mengantisipasi dampak lebih buruk akibat perubahan iklim yang diprediksi akan memperkuat frekuensi dan intensitas ENSO di masa depan.
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References
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Firmansyah, A. J., Nurjani, E., & Sekaranom, A. B. (2025). Dampak El Niño dan La Niña Terhadap Suhu Maksimum di Kabupaten Temanggung. Jurnal Sains Informasi Geografi, 8(1), 45. https://doi.org/10.31314/jsig.v8i1.4385
Hidayat, Efendi, U., Agustina, L., & Winarso, P. A. (2018). Korelasi indeks Nino 3.4 dan southern oscillation index (SOI) dengan variasi curah hujan di Semarang. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 19(2), 75. https://doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v19i2.3143
Hidayat, R., & Ando, K. (2014). Variabilitas Curah Hujan Indonesia dan Hubungannya dengan ENSO/IOD: Estimasi Menggunakan Data JRA-25/JCDAS. Agromet, 28(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.28.1.1-8
Hidayati, I. N. & Suryanto. (2015). Pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap produksi pertanian dan strategi adaptasi pada lahan rawan kekeringan. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 16(1), 42–52.
Huang, C., Yeh, C. M., Ufongene, C., Fashina, T., Chan, R. V. P., Shantha, J. G., Yeh, S., & Mwanza, J.-C. (2025). Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Climate Change on Infectious Diseases with Ophthalmic Manifestations. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, 10(10), 297. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed10100297
Irwansyah. (2016). What do scientists say on climate change? A study of Indonesian newspapers. Pacific Science Review B: Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(2), 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psrb.2016.09.008
Isnaini, R. (2019). Analisis Bencana Tanah Longsor di Wilayah Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Islamic Management and Empowerment Journal, 1(2), 143–160. https://doi.org/10.18326/imej.v1i2.143-160
Karuniasa, M., & Pambudi, P. A. (2022). The analysis of the El Niño phenomenon in the East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. Journal of Water and Land Development, 52, 180–185. https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2022.140388
Londhe, D. S., Katpatal, Y. B., & Bokde, N. D. (2023). Performance Assessment of Bias Correction Methods for Precipitation and Temperature from CMIP5 Model Simulation. Applied Sciences, 13(16), 9142. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13169142
Marjani, S., Alizadeh-Choobari, O., & Irannejad, P. (2019). Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 53(9–10), 5799–5813. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04902-1
Misnawati, Faqih, A., Boer, R., & June, T. (2018). Perbandingan metodologi koreksi bias data curah hujan CHIRPS. LIMNOTEK Perairan Darat Tropis Di Indonesia, 25(1), 18–29.
Nizamani, M. M., Hughes, A. C., Wang, Y., Zhang, H.-L., & Lai, Z. (2025). Climate extremes and socioeconomic impact of El Niño and La Niña events. Environmental Development, 56, 101276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101276
Nugroho, Tamagawa, I., & Harada, M. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis on the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the stream flow regimes in Java, Indonesia. Water, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020168
Nurrohmah, H., & Nurjani, E. (2017). Kajian Kekeringan Meteorologis Menggunakan Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Geomedia: Majalah Ilmiah Dan Informasi Kegeografian, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.21831/gm.v15i1.16230
Qian, J.-H., Robertson, A. W., & Moron, V. (2010). Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in rainfall variability over Java, Indonesia. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67(11), 3509–3524. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3348.1
Quispe‐Ccalluari, C., Tam, J., Demarcq, H., Chamorro, A., Espinoza‐Morriberón, D., Romero, C., Dominguez, N., Ramos, J., & Oliveros‐Ramos, R. (2018). An index of coastal thermal effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem. International Journal of Climatology, 38(7), 3191–3201. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5493
Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017). The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560
Sekaranom, A. B., Nurjani, E., Hadi, M. P., & Marfai, M. A. (2018). Comparsion of TRMM Precipitation Satellite Data over Central Java Region – Indonesia. Quaestiones Geographicae, 37(3), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2018-0028
Sekaranom, A. B., Nurjani, E., Harini, R., & Muttaqin, A. S. (2020). Simulation of daily rainfall data using articulated weather generator model for seasonal prediction of ENSO-affected zones in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Geography, 52(2), 143. https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.50862
Siroj, R. A., Afgani, W., Fatimah, Septaria, D., & Salsabila, G. Z. (2024). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Pendekatan Ilmiah untuk Analisis Data. Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran, 7(3).
Alyavara, M. F., Suhartanto, E., & Prasetyorini, L. (2025). Evaluasi Kinerja Teknik Koreksi Bias untuk Meningkatkan Akurasi Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) di Daerah Aliran Sungai Rejoso, Indonesia. Jurnal Penelitian Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai, 9(2), 165–180. https://doi.org/10.59465/jppdas.2025.9.2.165-180
Amirudin, A. A., Salimun, E., Tangang, F., Juneng, L., & Zuhairi, M. (2020). Differential influences of teleconnections from the Indian and Pacific Oceans on rainfall variability in Southeast Asia. Atmosphere, 11(9). https://doi.org/10.3390/ATMOS11090886
As-syakur, Abd. R., Adnyana, I. W. S., Mahendra, M. S., Arthana, I. W., Merit, I. N., Kasa, I. W., Ekayanti, N. W., Nuarsa, I. W., & Sunarta, I. N. (2014). Observation of spatial patterns on the rainfall response to ENSO and IOD over Indonesia using TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). International Journal of Climatology, 34(15), 3825–3839. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3939
Athoillah, I., Sibarani, R. M., & Doloksaribu, D. E. (2017). Analisis Spasial El Nino Kuat Tahun 2015 dan La Nina Lemah Tahun 2016 (Pengaruhnya Terhadap Kelembapan, Angin dan Curah Hujan di Indonesia). Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 18(1). https://ejournal.brin.go.id/JSTMC/article/view/1310
Atiah, W. A., Johnson, R., Muthoni, F. K., Mengistu, G. T., Amekudzi, L. K., Kwabena, O., & Kizito, F. (2023). Bias correction and spatial disaggregation of satellite-based data for the detection of rainfall seasonality indices. Heliyon, 9(7). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17604
Bárdossy, A., Seidel, J., & El Hachem, A. (2021). The use of personal weather station observations to improve precipitation estimation and interpolation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25(2), 583–601. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-583-2021
Belay, A. S., Fenta, A. A., Yenehun, A., Nigate, F., Tilahun, S. A., Moges, M. M., Dessie, M., Adgo, E., Nyssen, J., Chen, M., Griensven, A. V., & Walraevens, K. (2019). Evaluation and Application of Multi-Source Satellite Rainfall Product CHIRPS to Assess Spatio-Temporal Rainfall Variability on Data-Sparse Western Margins of Ethiopian Highlands. Remote Sensing, 11(22), 2688. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11222688
BPS Temanggung. (2025). Kabupaten Temanggung dalam angka 2025 (pp. 1–348). Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Temanggung.
Cahyarini, S. Y., & Henrizan, M. (2018). Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: A review. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 118(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/118/1/012052
Dos Reis, J. B. C., Rennó, C. D., & Lopes, E. S. S. (2017). Validation of satellite rainfall products over a mountainouswatershed in a humid subtropical climate region of Brazil. Remote Sensing, 9(12). https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9121240
Firmansyah, A. J., Nurjani, E., & Sekaranom, A. B. (2022). Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall anomalies in Central Java, Indonesia. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 15(24), 1746. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-11016-2
Firmansyah, A. J., Nurjani, E., & Sekaranom, A. B. (2025). Dampak El Niño dan La Niña Terhadap Suhu Maksimum di Kabupaten Temanggung. Jurnal Sains Informasi Geografi, 8(1), 45. https://doi.org/10.31314/jsig.v8i1.4385
Hidayat, Efendi, U., Agustina, L., & Winarso, P. A. (2018). Korelasi indeks Nino 3.4 dan southern oscillation index (SOI) dengan variasi curah hujan di Semarang. Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca, 19(2), 75. https://doi.org/10.29122/jstmc.v19i2.3143
Hidayat, R., & Ando, K. (2014). Variabilitas Curah Hujan Indonesia dan Hubungannya dengan ENSO/IOD: Estimasi Menggunakan Data JRA-25/JCDAS. Agromet, 28(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.28.1.1-8
Hidayati, I. N. & Suryanto. (2015). Pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap produksi pertanian dan strategi adaptasi pada lahan rawan kekeringan. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 16(1), 42–52.
Huang, C., Yeh, C. M., Ufongene, C., Fashina, T., Chan, R. V. P., Shantha, J. G., Yeh, S., & Mwanza, J.-C. (2025). Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Climate Change on Infectious Diseases with Ophthalmic Manifestations. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, 10(10), 297. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed10100297
Irwansyah. (2016). What do scientists say on climate change? A study of Indonesian newspapers. Pacific Science Review B: Humanities and Social Sciences, 2(2), 58–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psrb.2016.09.008
Isnaini, R. (2019). Analisis Bencana Tanah Longsor di Wilayah Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Islamic Management and Empowerment Journal, 1(2), 143–160. https://doi.org/10.18326/imej.v1i2.143-160
Karuniasa, M., & Pambudi, P. A. (2022). The analysis of the El Niño phenomenon in the East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. Journal of Water and Land Development, 52, 180–185. https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2022.140388
Londhe, D. S., Katpatal, Y. B., & Bokde, N. D. (2023). Performance Assessment of Bias Correction Methods for Precipitation and Temperature from CMIP5 Model Simulation. Applied Sciences, 13(16), 9142. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13169142
Marjani, S., Alizadeh-Choobari, O., & Irannejad, P. (2019). Frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 53(9–10), 5799–5813. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04902-1
Misnawati, Faqih, A., Boer, R., & June, T. (2018). Perbandingan metodologi koreksi bias data curah hujan CHIRPS. LIMNOTEK Perairan Darat Tropis Di Indonesia, 25(1), 18–29.
Nizamani, M. M., Hughes, A. C., Wang, Y., Zhang, H.-L., & Lai, Z. (2025). Climate extremes and socioeconomic impact of El Niño and La Niña events. Environmental Development, 56, 101276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101276
Nugroho, Tamagawa, I., & Harada, M. (2022). Spatiotemporal analysis on the teleconnection of ENSO and IOD to the stream flow regimes in Java, Indonesia. Water, 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020168
Nurrohmah, H., & Nurjani, E. (2017). Kajian Kekeringan Meteorologis Menggunakan Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Geomedia: Majalah Ilmiah Dan Informasi Kegeografian, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.21831/gm.v15i1.16230
Qian, J.-H., Robertson, A. W., & Moron, V. (2010). Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in rainfall variability over Java, Indonesia. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 67(11), 3509–3524. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3348.1
Quispe‐Ccalluari, C., Tam, J., Demarcq, H., Chamorro, A., Espinoza‐Morriberón, D., Romero, C., Dominguez, N., Ramos, J., & Oliveros‐Ramos, R. (2018). An index of coastal thermal effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the Peruvian Upwelling Ecosystem. International Journal of Climatology, 38(7), 3191–3201. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5493
Santoso, A., Mcphaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017). The Defining Characteristics of ENSO Extremes and the Strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560
Sekaranom, A. B., Nurjani, E., Hadi, M. P., & Marfai, M. A. (2018). Comparsion of TRMM Precipitation Satellite Data over Central Java Region – Indonesia. Quaestiones Geographicae, 37(3), 97–114. https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2018-0028
Sekaranom, A. B., Nurjani, E., Harini, R., & Muttaqin, A. S. (2020). Simulation of daily rainfall data using articulated weather generator model for seasonal prediction of ENSO-affected zones in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Geography, 52(2), 143. https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.50862
Siroj, R. A., Afgani, W., Fatimah, Septaria, D., & Salsabila, G. Z. (2024). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Pendekatan Ilmiah untuk Analisis Data. Jurnal Review Pendidikan dan Pengajaran, 7(3).
Authors
Firmansyah, A. J., Emilya Nurjani, & Andung Bayu Sekaranom. (2026). Dampak El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Terhadap Anomali Curah Hujan Di Kabupaten Temanggung 1995 – 2024. Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi Dan Lingkungan (JGEL), 10(1), 123–140. https://doi.org/10.22236/jgel.v10i1.19111
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