Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Tahun 2034 Dengan Permodelan Cellular Automata Di Kabupaten Semarang
Abstract
Land use changes reflect the dynamic growth of a region driven by continuously evolving human activities. Semarang Regency, located in Central Java Province, is currently experiencing significant land use changes due to suburbanization, population growth, and increasing population density each year. This study aims to predict land use changes in Semarang Regency as a basis for identifying potential non-compliance with the RTRW, referring to the renewal of the RTRW before the end of its validity period.To analyze these changes, a spatial approach using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing is essential to map land use in 2013, 2018, and 2024. This analysis is further integrated with Cellular Automata (CA) modelling and logistic regression to identify factors influencing land use changes and to predict land use patterns in Semarang Regency through 2034. The study predicts that by 2034, built-up land will expand by 9.315,83 hectares, while agricultural land will increase by 9.054,79 hectares. Conversely, forest and conservation land are projected to decrease by 18.433 hectares, and water bodies will shrink by approximately by 53,94 hectares. The results of this prediction can be used as a reference in preparing spatial planning policies that are more adaptive and in line with field conditions.
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References
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Yang, W., Mu, L., & Hou, K. (2022). Progress on Geographic Cellular Automata Model. In Proceedings - 2022 Global Conference on Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, GCRAIT 2022 (pp. 333–336). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. doi:10.1109/GCRAIT55928.2022.00077.
Alwan, Barkey, R. A., & Syafri. (2020). Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Keselarasan Rencana Pola Ruang Di Kota Kendari, 3(1), 1–5.
Angelsen, A., & Kaimowitz, D. (1999). Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models. The World Bank Research Observer, 14(1), 73–98.
Antrop, M. (1998). Landscape Change: Plan or Chaos?
Apriliyana, D. (2015). Pengaruh Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Sub DAS Rawapening terhadap Erosi dan Sedimentasi Danau Rawapening. Jurnal Pembangunan Wilayah Dan Kota , 11(1), 103–116.
Baja, S. (2012). Perencanaan Tata Guna Lahan dan Pengembangan Wilayah: Pendekatan Spasial & Aplikasinya. Yogyakarta: Penerbit ANDI.
Bella, H. M., & Rahayu, S. (2021). Alih Fungsi Lahan Hutan Menjadi Lahan Pertanian di Desa Berawang, Kecamatan Ketol, Kabupaten Aceh Tengah. Pros. SemNas. Peningkatan Mutu Pendidikan, 2(1), 88–91.
Briassoulis, H. (2020). Analysis of Land Use Change: Theoretical and Modeling Approaches (Second). WVU Research Repository.
Chomitz, K. M., & Gray, D. A. (1996). Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize Downloaded from. The World Bank Economic Review, 10(3), 487–512. Retrieved from http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/
Difanty, A., & Supriatna, S. (2021). Spatial Modeling for Prediction Agricultural Land-use Change in Jampang Kulon, Sukabumi Regency. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 623). IOP Publishing Ltd. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/623/1/012084
FAO. (1995). Land & Water.
Gorunescu. (2011). Classification Performance Evaluation. In Data Mining: Concepts, Models, and Techniques (pp. 319–330).
Hakim, A. M. Y., Baja, S., Rampisela, D. A., & Arif, S. (2021). Modelling Land Use/Land Cover Changes Prediction Using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN): A Case Study in Makassar City, Indonesia. International Journal of Environmental Studies, 78(2), 301–318. doi:10.1080/00207233.2020.1804730
Kusniawati, I., Subiyanto, S., & Janu Amarrohman, F. (2020). Analisis Model Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Menggunakan Artificial Neural Network di Kota Salatiga. Jurnal Geodesi Undip Januari (Vol. 9).
Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011). Global Land Use Change, Economic Globalization, and The Looming Land Scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(9), 3465–3472. doi:10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Laurance, W. F., Goosem, M., & Laurance, S. G. W. (2009, December). Impacts of Roads and Linear Clearings on Tropical Forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.009
Masykuroh, D. K., & Rudiarto, I. (2016). Kajian Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Harga Lahan di Wilayah Skeitar Pintu TOL Ungaran. Tataloka, 18(1), 53–66.
Munibah, K., P R Santun, Sitorus, & Rustiadi, E. (2009). Model Hubungan Antara Jumlah Penduduk dengan Luas Lahan Pertanian dan Permukiman (Studi Kasus DAS Cidanau, Provinsi Banten). Jurnal Tanah Dan Lingkungan, 11.
Norton, W. (1987). Humans, Land, and Landscape: A Proposal for Culturan Geography. The Canadian Geographer, 21–30.
Nugroho, P., & Sugiri, A. (2009). Studi Kebijakan Pembangunan Terhadap Perubahan Tata Ruang di Kota Semarang. Riptek, 3(2), 41–51. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265082978
Pamungkas, I., & Muktiali, M. (2015). Pengaruh Keberadaan Desa Wisata Karangbanjar Terhadap Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan, Ekonomi, dan Sosial Masyarakat. Teknik PWK, 4(3), 361–372.
Prasetyo, B. H., & Setyorini, D. (2008). Karakteristik Tanah Sawah dari Endapan Aluvial dan Pengelolaannya. Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan, 2(1), 1–14.
Riswanto. (2009). Evaluasi Akurasi Klasifikasi Penutupan Lahan Menggunakan Citra Alos Palsar Resolusi Rendah Studi Kasus di Pulau Kalimantan. IPB (Bogor Agricultural University).
Safitri, H. Y. S., Budisusanto, Y., Wahyu, U., & Dediyono, A. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Lokasi Central Business District Terhadap Nilai Tanah di Daerah Sekitarnya (Studi Kasus: Daerah Industri di Surabaya). Jurnal Teknik ITS, 5(2), A744–A749.
Santé, I., García, A. M., Miranda, D., & Crecente, R. (2010). Cellular Automata Models for The Simulation of Real-World Urban Processes: A Review and Analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning, 96(2), 108–122. doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.03.001
Seto, K. C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. R. (2012). Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(40), 16083–16088. doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Su Ritohardoyo. (2013). Penggunaan dan Tata Guna Lahan . Yogyakarta: Penerbit Ombak.
Suni, M. A., Muis, H., Arianingsih, I., Misra, M., & Baharuddin, R. F. (2023). Analisis dan Permodelan Spasial Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Hutan Produksi Terbatas Kecamatan Kulawi Kabupaten Sigi. Jurnal Tanah Dan Sumberdaya Lahan, 10(2), 273–284. doi:10.21776/ub.jtsl.2023.010.2.11
Syafitri, R., & Susetyo, C. (2018). Permodelan Pertumbuhan Lahan Terbangun sebagai Upaya Prediksi Perubahan Lahan Pertanian di Kabupaten Karanganyar. Jurnal Teknik ITS, 7(2), C255–C262.
Weith, T., Barkmann, T., Gaasch, N., Rogga, S., Strauß, C., & Zscheischler, J. (2021). Sustainable Land Management in a European Context. The Springer. Retrieved from http://www.springer.com/series/8599
Yang, W., Mu, L., & Hou, K. (2022). Progress on Geographic Cellular Automata Model. In Proceedings - 2022 Global Conference on Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and Information Technology, GCRAIT 2022 (pp. 333–336). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. doi:10.1109/GCRAIT55928.2022.00077.
Authors
Zahrayni, A. N., Tjaturahono Budi Sanjoto, Rahma Hayati, & Ariyani Indrayati. (2025). Prediksi Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Tahun 2034 Dengan Permodelan Cellular Automata Di Kabupaten Semarang. Jurnal Geografi, Edukasi Dan Lingkungan (JGEL), 9(2), 387–410. https://doi.org/10.22236/jgel.v9i2.17775
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